A Changed World-CCFC

on Tuesday, 24 March 2020.

A Changed World

Hello Friends:
In the blink of an eye, we live in a changed world. Two months ago, nobody heard of the Covid-19 Virus and today, it’s all we talk about. Yesterday, the County took the first step in protecting the citizens of Franklin County from an obvious exposure vector. Also, yesterday, there was a group of 40 people in Carrabelle from children to senior citizens partying in tight conjunction right along 98. Crazy.

Does everybody remember the Peter Benchley book “Jaws?” Jaws is a 1974 novel by American writer Peter Benchley. It tells the story of a great white shark that preys upon a small resort town and the voyage of three men trying to kill it.

My how similar the Town Fathers of Amityville and the Franklin County Board of Commissioners appear. It’s very simple. The BOCC is making the calculus that the number of infections and deaths we get by not banning visitors from the county is worth the economic gain. There is another thing that they aren’t considering.... the longer this goes on, the more economic hardship. Therefore, the decision should be easy; whatever shortens the exposure period is the way to go. Less exposures means less transmission which means less death and a shorter period of economic recovery.

I write for our Company and here’s part of the message we are sending out today on what we project economically:
  1. That the Virus peaks in April and begins to abate. It is our opinion that this will allow for a sharp rebound as all the fundamentals will still be in place as the stimulus of the government is going to be massive. Also, it is a Presidential election year and historically, those years are good economically. This is the vaunted deep V recovery you may have heard about.
  2. The Virus does not peak until May or June. We would expect a recession lasting between three months and a year as a consequence. However, the recession will be uneven as some areas of the country will have been affected less than others and the government will have to be innovative to find longer term economic tools to spark the economy. Tools that will be in short supply as they are being used to a large extent now.
  3. The Virus does not peak until later and has caused widespread destruction of economic and social structures. This scenario would likely lead to a worldwide depression and all bets would be off.
There’s a saying that “Wishing is not enough.” All of us wish we knew with certainty that the first scenario is what will actually transpire. While none of us can predict the future with certainty, we must act as if we can. Let me explain that a bit. The concept of a self-fulfilling prophecy is very real. If many people believe positively, then they take actions consistent with that belief. Unfortunately, the reverse is also true. Good outcomes are statistically more likely to occur when people believe and prepare for good outcomes.

The trick is we also want to protect ourselves from the downside. You can prepare for an expected good outcome while being mindful of serious negative outcomes also being possible. In essence, plan and expect the Deep V while acknowledging and preparing to the extent possible for something worse.

If I had any message for our Commissioners it would be that they embrace the concept of isolation that the rest of the country is slowing coming around to. Precious days are being wasted as we incrementally do the things that will eventually stop the spread of this pathogen. Please take this seriously. It will pass and there will be a tomorrow. We will survive. But, particularly in a small county with limited resources and not high on anyone’s priority list save our own; we must come together and treat this as the war it really is. Lives are at stake and your contribution to the cause will make a difference in the only currency that really matters…lives.

Lastly, we are ending our 2020 Membership Campaign. Please, please consider joining and send us your dues payment today, while you are still thinking about it. Remember to add your email address with your check to the address below. Your numbers and financial support are vital to the CCFC continuing being your county watchdog. Dues are not tax deductible.

The very best to you all!

Thank you.

Allan J. Feifer
Concerned Citizens of Franklin County, Inc.
P.O. Box 990
Eastpoint, Florida 32328
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

(850) 653-5571

“The Concerned Citizens of Franklin County, Inc. serves as a citizens’ advocate to ensure that our Franklin County governments are more open, affordable, efficient, and responsive to our citizens. The organization seeks to hold public officials accountable for their actions in the administration of their duties and in their fiduciary responsibilities to the taxpayers.”

Commissioner Contacts:

Commissioner Bert Boldt <This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.> 519-4966
Commissioner Smokey Parrish <This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.> 653-8790
Commissioner Ricky Jones <This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.> 653-8861
Chairman Noah Lockley <This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.> 653-4452
Commissioner William Massey <This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.> 653-8861

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